🪤 Logic Traps

Common thinking pitfalls and how to sidestep them.

Confirmation Bias

Seeking evidence that agrees with what you already believe and dismissing what doesn't. Fix: actively look for the strongest argument against your view.

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Continuing because of what you've already invested. Fix: choose based on future costs and benefits, not past spend.

Anchoring

Locking on to the first number/idea you hear. Fix: generate your own estimate before looking at anchors.

Availability Heuristic

Judging likelihood by how easily examples come to mind. Fix: look at base rates, not vivid stories.

Dunning-Kruger

Low-skill people over-rate their skill; experts under-rate theirs. Fix: seek external feedback and test yourself.

Straw Man

Arguing against a weakened version of the other side. Fix: restate their view until they say 'yes, that's what I mean' before disagreeing.

False Dilemma

Framing a choice as only two options when more exist. Fix: brainstorm a third and fourth option before deciding.

Hindsight Bias

Believing 'I knew it all along' after an outcome. Fix: write your prediction down before the outcome is known.